The worst NRL offenders for set restarts revealed Are they gaming the system

The broadcasters wanted something different, the NRL came up with the idea and the fans are still split on whether it’s a winner or not. So who are the biggest beneficiaries of the six-again rule, and how are teams using it differently?

On the cusp of the first finals series in which the set restart rule has been in place a full season, a champion side which is just about to smash a host of modern day NRL records is somehow the worst offender in the game. It doesn’t make sense, but then again it is rugby league.

How are the Melbourne Storm so good when their relationship with six-agains is so bad? And are coaches now one step ahead of the law-makers, gaming the six-again rule for their benefit?

“Teams definitely use it to their advantage - and I think sometimes referees use it to their advantage, too,” NSW coach Brad Fittler says. “I think the referees are doing their best with discretion. It’s something that is new to the game and could do with a bit of a review, I feel.

“I just know from coaching it’s a little frustrating, and I don’t know if it’s entirely working, but it’s happening. It’s hard to know why and for what reason some things are called, but I think everyone can agree there’s a bit of a lack of accountability there.”

What is clear, though, is the two worst offending teams this season are at completely opposite ends of the ladder; Melbourne cruising to another minor premiership and the Bulldogs hurtling towards the wooden spoon.

Frustrated Canterbury coach Trent Barrett has, on several occasions, walked into post-match press conferences this year and bemoaned his team’s lack of rub of the green when it comes to set restarts. He’s right: the Bulldogs have been on the receiving end more often than not.

But even they have a better record than Melbourne, who have conceded 28 more set restarts than they’ve been awarded in the opening 21 rounds of the season (Canterbury’s differential is -22), according to Champion Data. Yet the Storm have just won their 18th straight match and haven’t been beaten since March.

Is it because their defence is just so good it doesn’t matter how many set restarts they concede, more often that not they’ll be able to stifle the opposition attack? Is their record so bad because they only give them away early in tackle counts, halting a rival’s momentum for the rest of the set by slowing down the ruck? Or are they doing it in areas of the field where the opposition is unlikely to score from anyway?

No team has a worse six-again differential this year than the Melbourne Storm, which are marching towards the minor premiership.Credit:Getty

The answer might be a combination of all three, but it is clear being on the right end of six-again calls is not the only way to become an NRL powerhouse.

The anomaly in Melbourne’s record is that the biggest threats to their quest for back-to-back titles all have positive six-again counts, including the NRL’s best exponents, Penrith (+26).

The Eels (+21), Rabbitohs (+11) and Roosters (+8), which have an abysmal record with full penalties, have all been awarded more set restarts than they’ve conceded this year, while the Sharks have been the most disciplined team (conceding just 54).

A data analyst with popular website Rugby League Eye Test, which breaks down trends in the NRL, has mapped specific areas of the field in which teams are conceding set restarts. The site’s creator Andrew, who asked for his surname to be withheld for professional reasons, collates the data by scraping information from publicly available websites such as NRL.com.

He argues a ruck or offside infringement costs a team on average only an extra 2.3 tackles per set given more than 60 per cent of six-agains are waved on the first two plays.

The heat map of where the Penrith Panthers concede set re-starts, the highest percentage in the opposition half.Credit:Rugby League Eye Test

When that number is taken into consideration, why wouldn’t coaches cop an extra tackle or two to slow momentum when the previous full penalty could come at a greater territorial cost?

The Rugby League Eye Test data concludes about 65 per cent of restarts Ivan Cleary’s side concedes are in the opposition half - and the NRL average is 50 per cent. Teams like the Roosters and Manly have a higher percentage closer to their own goal line.

Overall, 19 per cent of six-agains are given away within 10 metres of the defence’s try-line - the highest ratio than any other part of the field as teams desperately try to disrupt an opposition’s attack.

While the noise from high-profile players about the speed of the game and record blowouts has quietened significantly in recent weeks, a number of State of Origin stars have voiced concerns about how six-agains are affecting the product.

Daniel Tupou and the Roosters have a higher percentage of six-agains in their own 10-metre zone.Credit:Getty

Peter V’landys says the rule, which was expanded to cater for offside infringements this year and initially designed to eliminate the wrestle, is here to stay. He points to the game’s most exciting talent such as James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Nathan Cleary and Reece Walsh all thriving under the rule.

But will the NRL tinker with it at the end of the season?

“I don’t think it helps the game,” Dragons coach Anthony Griffin says. “I think we’ve had too many rule changes over the past couple of years, but that’s just my opinion. I’m not sure [set restarts] speed up the ruck or help the game, and it just confuses people.

“If you left it at one referee with their discretion for when to blow a penalty, I thought that was a good rhythm for the game. Now it happens so quickly everyone says, ‘what was that for?’ I think less is more with officiating.”

Warriors coach Nathan Brown doesn’t want the six-again rule eradicated from the game, but he’s frank enough to admit coaches have now worked out how to massage it for gain.

“There are some certain aspects of it that have made our game a lot better,” he says. “Like anything over time, people try to, I suppose, bend the rules. As coaches, we’re always looking for an avenue to get an advantage. That’s what happens.

“I certainly wouldn’t like to see it completely gone from the game. It’s had a big impact on the game. Whether it needs a bit of modification or a bit of change, I’m not too sure.”

Asked what the fans think of the rule, Fittler says: “I think there’s a fair bit of frustration. If anything the fans are just like everyone else, they want it to be a little bit clearer.”

NRL head of football Graham Annesley will lead a review of all aspects of the game at the end of the season preparing for 2022. One of the hottest topics will be the six-again ruling, and have they found the right balance?

Rugby League Players Association boss Clint Newton said the review was “an absolute top priority for us and it is absolutely necessary players be included on any committee to assess any rules or metrics connected to the game”.

Says Annesley: “The introduction of six-again for ruck and 10 metre infringements has clearly led to less stoppages, more game continuity, and a reduction in the focus on individual officiating decisions during the run of play.

“These are all positive outcomes, but as you would expect, it has also resulted in some criticism of a perceived lack of consistency in how the six-again rule has been applied by referees. But this is nothing new as the demand for ‘consistency’ has been the easiest and most non-specific complaint levelled against referees for decades.

“As is the case with penalties, any statistical analysis of six-again infringements will naturally result in a descending list of offending teams from top to bottom. I don’t think anything of significance can be read into such a comparison as the referees just call it as they see it and the statistics simply reflect that reality.”

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Adam Pengilly is a sports reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald.

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